Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
